Author: Paul Davidson, USA TODAY

Economy added 253,000 jobs in April amid high interest rates, credit crunch, jobs report shows. Unemployment fell to 3.4%.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its key interest rate by another quarter point, then signal a long pause – if inflation eases as projected

Inflation slowed again March, according to the Fed’s preferred measure of price increases. But the PCE index showed core prices stayed high.

Forecasters say a recession could begin as soon as the current quarter. High interest rates and inflation are starting to curtail growth.

Immigrants are behind most of the growth in the U.S. labor force the past few years. The trend has helped ease worker shortages and slow inflation.

Most economists who work for companies and trade groups no longer project a recession within a year, survey shows. But many see employment dropping.

U.S. retail sales declined 1% in March amid recession worries, rising interest rates and high inflation. Economists forecast a 0.4% decline.

Recession this year is likely, experts say, but it could be avoided or minimized if the wealthy keep spending despite falling stocks and inflation.